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Oil Breaks Down Trend and SPY ETF is closed above 100 Day Moving Average


US stock market is enjoying a good week with 4th up day in a row as non-farm payroll report today was better than expected and oil stocks is showing strength. The expected number was 190000 and actual number was 2420000. During mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payroll gains 150000 is considered a good report. However, we got the number 2420000, the number is like early stage economic expansion. Unemployment rate is also 4.9 percent that is also record low since 2011.


SPY is heating 200 point today and closed above the 200 point. Other major consideration is spy is also heating 100 day simple moving average after a 5 month period and closed above the 100 day simple average. 200 point is very important because last spy was broke down as it went down to 200 point and came all the way down to 181. This triggers to the possibility of bear market as bear market was only 10 points away from the 180.
SPY was forming a bullish weekly flag pattern in the before it broke down reversely in January 2016. Now we have to see how market react at this point as it is expected market will face very strong resistance in the spy 200 point. Another point is that we have really good job report that will accelerate the investors’ confidence and bull will try to take control of the market.

Dow Jones Index also tries to recover from the recent downward moves, but it’s not showing that much strength. Dow tries to hits its 100 day simple moving average but failed to cross over the 100 day simple moving average.

Tech sector index QQQ seems to remain stable and is not showing bullishness like SPY. Even though QQQ is staying above the 100, a strong point for bull but it also holding below the both 100 and 200 day simple moving average.

This week SP 500 energy ETF  XLE showed strength among the other index. XLE finally breaks the long term downtrend and also crossed the 21 day, 50 day simple moving average and trying to reach 100 day simple moving average. This will be good news for oil stock if trend stays intact in the long run.


Oil broader Index USO also shows strength this week. Index move from $8.78 to $9.56 this week that is almost 9 percent gain in a single week. Index also broke 50 day moving average today strongly holding above the 50 day simple moving average. Index also broke its long term downtrend this week. This is really good news for oil stocks that were getting hurt by price decrease for long time. Some of the oil stock lose more than 90 percent values during this time. Energy stock CHK is up almost 100 percent this week. Interestingly, this stock also broke the downtrend and let’s see it can continue to hold the uptrend intact. Stock also break 50 day and 100 day simple moving average this week and strongly holding above the 100 day simple moving average.

Week financial sector index XLF showed strength this week. XLF also broke long term down trend this week and heading toward 100 day simple moving average. XLF also broke the 50 day simple moving average this and holding above the 50 day simple moving average pretty well. Some of the XLF holding like CITI ticker symbol C already gave back most of its gain from the current Bull Run and holding almost low of the 2013 price levels.

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